Is Blaming Baker Fair? Also: Bucs OL, RB Duo Ballin'

Jon details his concerns about Baker Mayfield's recent performances, before highlighting how outstanding the Bucs OL has been, and the team's impressive RB duo carrying the load.

Is Baker Mayfield At All To Blame For Bucs Slide?

Here’s a look at some key numbers that I pulled after weeks of being concerned with Mayfield’s play on tape.

• Week 10 - 10.3% plus accuracy, 5th worst among 26 QBs with 10+ attempts (plus accuracy = ball location accurate or away from coverage)

• Almost 42% of Baker’s throws in Week 10 were charted as inaccurate, but catchable or uncatchable inaccurate (20.7% of each category)

• Over the past 5 weeks (1-4 record), only Drake Maye (12) has more TWPs than Baker’s 10

• W6-10: Almost 61% of Mayfield’s attempts are short of the sticks, comfortably the highest rate in the NFL. 29th out of 30 qualifying QBs in ADOT (6.7 yards beyond LOS), but well behind the other 2 lower ADOT QBs in ADJ Comp % in Mahomes and Kyler (12th in NFL, Mahomes 3rd and Kyler 7th). Lowest air yards percentage by 5 percentile points. And by FAR the highest percentage of his yardage coming after the catch.

• A lot of this is scheme, and how the Bucs have chosen to play without Evans and Godwin. But even with those guys, the numbers and league rank were basically exactly the same for Baker. Losing those guys has not fundamentally changed how he’s playing, even if it has changed the offense some. 

• Baker just isn’t being aggressive enough down the field when shots are there, or he’s hesitating too long to pull the trigger. Bucs have just eight completions of 20+ air yards on the season. The only QBs with less are Mahomes, Levis, Watson, Brissett.

• W6-10 - Baker is PFF’s lowest graded QB on 20+ air yard throws, going 4-19 with 4 TWPs. Even counting 2 drops as catches, he’s at sub 32% adjusted completion percentage on 20+ air yard throws, 22nd of 29 qualifying QBs in W6-10. And this isn’t even getting into the throws he turns down or hesitates on down the field. It’s a big issue. An offense without its 2 best weapons needs to get an explosive every now and then with the margin for error on long drives being much smaller. This was an issue for the Bucs offense last season too, despite drawing up a number of open downfield looks.