Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith Scouting Notes & Projection
NFL Draft analyst Jon Ledyard offers his scouting notes and projection for Georgia edge defender Nolan Smith.
Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith
Smith is a 6-3, 235-pound edge defender who played almost exclusively outside the tackle at Georgia. Unfortunately, Smith missed most of the 2022 season after suffering a torn pec injury in his eighth game of the year. Because Georgia had blown out so many teams on their schedule, the rotational edge rusher only played 188 snaps last season. In 2021, Smith played 499 reps.
With only 867 snaps over the past three seasons, experience is an understandable concern for Smith. But he just turned 22, so the senior isn’t old for a prospect. Georgia’s defensive line was the deepest group in the nation, so it’s understandable that he played in rotation. Even last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Travon Walker, was in a rotation.
Smith was a coaching staff favorite and has been described by Kirby Smart as a natural leader. Despite being a senior and commonly mocked as a first round pick before the season, Smith still played on every special teams unit as a tone-setter for the Bulldogs in 2022.
Games Watched: Oregon (2022), Florida (2022), South Carolina (2022), Missouri (2022) Alabama NC (2021), Michigan (2021)
Projection: Edge rusher only, from 2 or 3-point stance
Scouting Thoughts
The word savvy came to mind constantly when I watched Smith. How else can you be an elite collegiate run defender in the SEC while playing at 235 pounds? Smith is a technique marvel on tape, constantly playing with arm extension, low pads and leveraged hips in the run game. He locks out and gets off blocks with stunning consistency despite giving up significant weight in every battle.
And when he’s unblocked, Smith is even more devastating in the run game. Teams that tried optioning off of the senior were met with utter disaster. Smith played the option square the past two seasons, showing elite lateral agility and explosiveness to chase down quarterbacks who pull the ball. Over both of the past two years, Smith has been one of the best space edge defenders in the country. It’s hard for anyone to get an edge on him, thanks to his terrific awareness and outstanding speed.
While Smith is teach tape in college as a run defender, it is fair to wonder if he can succeed at the same rate in the NFL. It looked like he bulked up some for the 2022 season, so perhaps he’s up to 240-245 now. He doesn’t look that small on tape, probably due to the fact that Smith has one of the most jacked frames in the draft.
As a pass rusher, the evolution for Smith has been more gradual. In 2021, Smith tried to be too much of a power rusher rather than rely on his more athletic traits. He still flashed at times, but his hand usage improved significantly in 2022. As a junior, Smith was consistently tied up when tackles got their hands on him. But as a senior he initiated contact and worked free from strikes far more often.
Smith may not have the length and size of some of the more heralded edge rushers in the class, but he has a better pass rush plan and more moves. He loves to go to the cross-chop to win the edge, a move which is highly successful in the NFL as well. Smith can dip and corner, but added power in his lower half would help him bend through contact at the top of the arc. My favorite evolution in his game is the outside jab step-inside counter combo that forced a couple holds this past season. It’s tough for an offensive lineman to laterally mirror Smith when he crosses the blocker’s face.
The biggest reason to be concerned about Smith’s projection to the NFL is his size. At times, length and mass swallowed him up. But it limits him more as a rusher than as a run defender on tape. And we’ve seen plenty of rushers with Smith’s strengths overcome size concerns to produce at the next level. Haason Reddick, Josh Uche, Bryce Huff and others are all undersized rushers, yet win on athleticism and pass rush savvy.
Size matters, but not as much as the athletic traits and the skill. Those will always be the most important aspects of pass rush play on the edge. Smith has both, and he’s held up extremely well physically for years in the SEC. If he can get to 245-250, and he may already be there, I think the size concerns will be a non-issue.
Of course, Smith needs to keep improving his pass rush plan too. If the bull rush isn’t going to be in his repertoire, he needs a speed-counter game off the edge. That’ll mean maximizing his first step, developing a spin move and adding the long arm to his skill set. Smith is a great athlete, but I don’t think he’s as explosive off the line of scrimmage as Haason Reddick was coming out of college. Not yet, anyway. He’s not a finished product, but he’s getting better and looked poised to break out in 2022 before his injury.
Lastly, what about Smith’s production concerns? The senior recorded just 12.5 sacks in four seasons at Georgia, and never more than 4.5 in a season.
Ordinarily, I would agree that’s a mildly troubling profile. But Smith’s situation was more unique than any edge defender in the country. For basically his entire career, he played on the deepest defensive line in college football. He also played for a head coach that rotates his defensive line with incredible frequency. In addition, Georgia’s defensive line stunts constantly, often asking Smith to free up one of his teammates for a pressure, rather than letting him work one-on-one against a pass protector.
Lastly, no team in the country had as many blowouts as Georgia over the past two years. Smith started each of the past two seasons, but was often on the bench by halftime.
When you combine these factors, it’s easy to see why Smith posted modest sack numbers. It’s more effective to look at sacks per pass rush snap, where Smith is comparable to/better than the other top edge defenders in the class. Below, you can see the average amount of snaps it took each edge defender to record a sack in college.
Career
Will Anderson: 36
Myles Murphy: 49
Tyree Wilson: 53
Nolan Smith: 44
Lukas Van Ness: 43
2022
Anderson: 38
Murphy: 55
Wilson: 37
Smith: 35
Van Ness: 45
2021
Anderson: 27.5
Murphy: 42
Wilson: 50
Smith: 57
Van Ness: 41
2020
Anderson: 51.3
Murphy: 56
Wilson: 137
Smith: 33
Van Ness: N/A
According to Pro Football Focus, Smith had a pass rush win rate of 25 percent in 2022. That’s a higher win rate than Anderson, Murphy, Wilson or Van Ness.
Now, I’m not saying these numbers prove anything except that Smith is comparably productive to his peers in this draft, per opportunity. Yes, the sample size is smaller than you’d like. It would be awesome if everyone played 1,200 snaps like Will Anderson. But based on the info we have available, Smith was impressive when he played.
So where will NFL teams be willing to take a leap of faith? By all accounts, Smith will check the character and leadership boxes emphatically. He’s an extremely hard worker and a team-first player who will buy into any role as a rookie. If Smith tests as expected (his high school numbers were exceptional), it’ll be hard to keep him out of the first round.